A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
